The Road Ahead: Will the West Stabilize and Grow Again?
該往何處：西方世界是否能回歸穩定並再次成長？
by Michael Spence
Aug 15, 2011 6:45 AM EDT
Three Nobel economists share their thoughts on America’s future, what went wrong, and what can be done to fix things.
三位諾貝爾經濟學家提出他們對美國未來的看法，到底問題在哪，以及如何修正。
Coming home from my Italian vacation this year was an abrupt transition. From the calm waters of southern Sardinia, I was plunged into the global economy’s stormy seas. Financial markets were plummeting, driven by pessimistic growth forecasts in Europe and America. Investors were fleeing for safety pretty much everywhere. Systemic risk—the statistical likelihood of outright economic collapse—was rising. Yields on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt were climbing into the danger zone, threatening to fly out of control. America was on the verge of a technical default on its sovereign debt.
當我今年從義大利的假期回來的時候，真是個大轉變。從義大利薩丁島的海水，變成投身於全球性的經濟險惡潮流。財金市場大幅衰退，歸功於對歐洲及美國的成長預估不樂觀。投資場逃離歐美市場往更安全的地方去。系統性風險—也就是全面性經濟崩盤於統計上的可能性—大幅的提升。殖利率飆升，義大利與西班牙的外債面臨危險，甚至很有可能會失去控制。美國在這項權力債務上已經到了技術性違約的邊緣了。
Weeks later, the fear in the markets is only growing worse. It comes in part from a large and still-incomplete market correction. But more than that, the policymaking bodies of Europe and the United States seem paralyzed. On both sides of the Atlantic there are unsettling similarities. In the face of very clear—and admittedly difficult—challenges to restore fiscal stability and stimulate medium- and long-term growth, government response is in various states of gridlock and denial.
幾周後，市場上的恐慌更加劇。部份是由於大幅度的市場修正尚未完備。但影響更大的是美國與歐洲的決策機關似乎都癱瘓了。大西洋的兩端都有類似的不安。使財政穩定、刺激中長期的經濟成長，這些都是非常明確而且困難的挑戰。當面對這些議題的時候，政府的反應面臨各種僵局。
In response to Washington’s dysfunction on the debt issue, Standard & Poor’s downgraded America’s credit rating (prematurely, in my view). Nevertheless, the markets have not abandoned U.S. bonds. For one thing, big investors like China have no practical alternative. For another, the risk still isn’t all that high. But trouble is deepening around the world. Equity prices are dropping as growth falls away or is threatened. Employment is stagnant, and policy processes are stuck. Fears of a global downturn are rising; some view it now as a near certainty. Jobs will be a major casualty, especially for the young. Even in the emerging economies, growth seems likely to suffer. Prospects for improvement seem remote.
對於華盛頓在債務處理上有障礙，標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)降低了美國的債信評價(不過以我個人的意見認為還太早)。儘管如此，市場還沒有拋售美國的債券。一方面，像中國這種大投資者其實沒有選擇。另一方面，風險並非真的那麼高。但這些問題再世界各地加劇。股票價格跌落、成長緩慢或是充滿威脅。工作越來越少，政策受到阻礙。全球性的衰退的恐懼又再度高升，有些人甚至認為衰退鐵定是免不了的。工作機會是最大的慘劇，由其是對年輕人而言。即便在一些新興經濟體，成長也非常的痛苦。進步的遠景似乎越來越遙遠。
And why has the focus of the policy debate in Washington borne so little resemblance to what most Americans seem to want? Traveling around the United States on a book tour in May and June, I spoke with many people who wanted nothing more than a coherent bipartisan plan—a plan that would focus on the future, on employment and growth. They recognized that getting there would take sacrifices. Polls suggest that many Americans share that desire. And yet in Washington the legislative process has not produced anything like that kind of consensus.
在這些議題上，為什麼政府施政的焦點與人民所期待的相差那麼遠？五六月的時候我在美國各地為新書宣傳，大家最希望就是兩黨能緊密的合作擬定計劃，擬定一份針對未來的計劃，特別要著重在工作機會與經濟成長。民眾能夠理解要付出一些代價，民調顯示民眾都這有同樣的渴望。即便如此，但政府立法程序完全沒有任何成果來對應民眾的渴望。
Some observers argue that Americans are looking for a solution that simply isn’t feasible. Others say the country’s philosophical disagreements over economic priorities are so large that compromise is practically impossible. Both views may contain some truth. But the real sticking point seems to be something other than the economy: the size and role of government. Fiscal stabilization is only the battleground, not the objective. Jobs and economic growth are related only tangentially to the policy debate.
有些觀察家主張美國在找尋的是一個不可行的答案，另外有些人認為(兩黨)在經濟上的認知相距甚遠使得妥協遙不可及。兩種觀點都是部份的事實，但真正把我們困住的似乎是經濟以外的事：政府的規模與角色。財政穩定與否只不過是個戰場，而非目的。就業與經濟成長只是剛好在這場政策戰爭當中沾上了邊。
There’s another problem, too, and it’s not confined to the United States. Enabled by a combination of public and private debt, much of the Western world has been living far beyond its means for at least two decades. By now the pattern has embedded itself deep in the expectations of people who have come to see it as normal. But it’s no longer sustainable.
當然也有些其他的問題，而且不是只侷限在美國本土。西方世界的生活水準在過去至少二十年超出他們的水平，這些都來自於公債與個人債務的膨脹。這樣的生活方式已經深植人心，以至於大家把這種情況看做理所當然。不過現在這樣的膨脹已經沒有辦法再延續了。
To restore a stable pattern of inclusive growth—the kind that truly lifts all boats—the first step is to reduce the debt loads in these economies, not suddenly but systematically. That alone won’t be enough. Consumption and government services will have to be reset downward, replaced by public and private investment that is funded by domestic saving. The path we’ve been on is blocked; we need to take a few steps backward to be able to go forward again. Nevertheless, this harsh truth has not yet been accepted by governments or electorates. Instead we appear to be clutching at our past standards of living, hoping for a vigorous but delayed cyclical recovery. The unemployed are the ones paying for this strategy.
若要重新取得平衡以獲得成長，而且是那種真正讓大家都能水漲船高的成長，首要之務就是降低債務負擔，不是躁進的縮減，而是有系統的降低。單只做到這樣是不夠的，消費與政府支出要下降，要取而代之的是政府與私人對國內企業的投資。目前走的路是不通的，我們得往回退幾步，才能夠再前進。不過，對選民與政府來說，目前這還是不願面對的真相。與其緊抓住過去的生活水準不放，我們應該期待未來的緩慢的復甦但旺盛的成長。那些失業者將是承擔這項策略的人。
The world is at a crossroads, with popular expectations diverging from reality. With luck, our policymakers may become more bold and focused, leading toward a more balanced and durable growth pattern. That is the hope. Still, it could go the other way—bickering our way into a relatively stagnant future, fraught with political and social conflict and inequities.
世界正面臨十字路口，那些流行的期望正與現實脫離。如果幸運的話，執政者能變得更大膽果斷，把注意力放在該放的地方。領導我們走向更平穩更持久的經濟成長。但這只是希望，當然也有可能與希望相違背。也有可能將我們帶到相隊停滯不前的窘境，充滿政治社會衝突與對立的那條路。
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